{r analysis, include = FALSE} #source('synthetic_control_analysis.R', local = TRUE) #

Brazil Results

combine estimates

SC Estimate (95% CI) ITS Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.84 (0.75, 1.04) 0.86 (0.75, 0.99) 0.83 (0.76, 1.04)
1 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) 0.71 (0.62, 0.8) 0.81 (0.72, 0.91)
2 0.77 (0.73, 0.87) 0.79 (0.69, 1.01) 0.79 (0.73, 0.86)
3 0.78 (0.72, 0.94) 0.86 (0.79, 0.91) 0.75 (0.71, 0.87)
4 0.78 (0.67, 0.87) 0.79 (0.74, 0.85) 0.76 (0.7, 0.81)
5 0.81 (0.71, 0.92) 0.86 (0.78, 0.93) 0.82 (0.74, 0.91)
6 1.05 (0.82, 1.15) 0.99 (0.92, 1.05) 0.84 (0.75, 0.96)
7 1.13 (1.02, 1.46) 1.1 (0.95, 1.16) 0.96 (0.87, 1.06)
8 0.97 (0.88, 1.17) 0.99 (0.9, 1.08) 0.99 (0.91, 1.08)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.91) 0.78 (0.7, 0.83) 0.77 (0.72, 0.86)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to WAIC weights

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.4544258
1 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.2196225
2 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 E40_46 0.9999994 N39 0.4484079
3 cJ20_J22 0.8619247 P00_99 0.5105906 G00_99_SY 0.4003948
4 pandemic 1.0000000 Z00_99 0.8173739 E00_99 0.7558520
5 pandemic 1.0000000 I00_99 0.9520736 A41 0.8788925
6 pandemic 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9402659 K80 0.2965938
7 E00_99 0.9648396 P00_99 0.3400240 cJ20_J22 0.2859201
8 A41 0.8167488 I00_99 0.3446649 I60_64 0.2821856
9 E40_46 1.0000000 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 C00_D48 0.1470832

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0 0.84 (0.75, 1.04) cJ20_J22 1 0.9 (0.72, 1.14) E00_99 1 0.91 (0.72, 1.13) M00_99 0.4 0.92 (0.67, 1.15)
1 0.77 (0.73, 0.82) cJ20_J22 1 0.75 (0.69, 0.85) E40_46 1 0.75 (0.68, 0.9) K00_99 0.22 0.75 (0.7, 0.89)
2 0.77 (0.73, 0.87) cJ20_J22 1 0.81 (0.74, 0.96) E40_46 1 0.77 (0.67, 0.95) N39 0.45 0.76 (0.68, 0.9)
3 0.78 (0.72, 0.94) cJ20_J22 0.86 0.78 (0.7, 0.88) P00_99 0.51 0.77 (0.7, 0.85) G00_99_SY 0.4 0.8 (0.75, 0.9)
4 0.78 (0.67, 0.87) pandemic 1 0.74 (0.54, 0.83) Z00_99 0.82 0.71 (0.62, 0.83) E00_99 0.76 0.71 (0.62, 0.86)
5 0.81 (0.71, 0.92) pandemic 1 0.62 (0.54, 0.84) I00_99 0.95 0.64 (0.55, 0.81) A41 0.88 0.69 (0.57, 0.92)
6 1.05 (0.82, 1.15) pandemic 1 0.86 (0.69, 0.97) E00_99 0.94 0.81 (0.67, 0.92) K80 0.3 0.82 (0.68, 0.98)
7 1.13 (1.02, 1.46) E00_99 0.96 0.91 (0.82, 1.31) P00_99 0.34 0.91 (0.81, 1.17) cJ20_J22 0.29 0.96 (0.85, 1.19)
8 0.97 (0.88, 1.17) A41 0.82 1.04 (0.93, 1.17) I00_99 0.34 1.02 (0.87, 1.15) I60_64 0.28 1.03 (0.91, 1.19)
9 0.75 (0.71, 0.91) cJ20_J22 1 0.74 (0.67, 0.92) E40_46 1 0.84 (0.76, 0.95) C00_D48 0.15 0.77 (0.68, 0.86)

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